This episode of Possibly originally aired on April 21, 2020.

In the Northeast, we can expect longer periods without any rain. But when it does rain, it’ll be heavier, which leads to more floods. We’ll probably see the same amount of hurricanes, but they’ll be more intense. The initial research says the same is true for tornadoes and hailstorms. Thankfully, tsunamis aren’t connected to climate change.

Megan Hall: Welcome to Possibly, where we take on huge problems like the future of our planet and break them down into small questions with unexpected answers. I’m Megan Hall. 

Last year, we answered this question from Marius, a third-grader at Heights Elementary School in Sharon, Massachusetts. He wanted to know-

Marius: Can global warming make more extreme weather? Like tornadoes and hurricanes and tsunamis and like big storms.

Megan Hall: In the past few months, we’ve seen this extreme weather on full display. Not just big storms, but floods and extreme heat, including a record-breaking 115 degrees in Portland, Oregon- my hometown! So, we thought it made sense to air this episode again.

Fatima Husain looked into Marius’s question. 

Fatima Husain: Hello, Megan! 

Megan Hall: So, can we expect more intense storms because of global warming? 

Fatima Husain: The short answer is yes — global warming is already causing weather events like hurricanes to become more extreme. 

To learn more, I Zoom-ed with Dr. Kerry Emanuel at MIT. He’s been studying hurricanes, cyclones, and tropical storms for nearly 35 years. 

Kerry:It’s perhaps one of the most important aspects of global warming. What does it do to extreme weather? And there’s some things we know about that. And there are other things we wish we did know.

Fatima Husain: Here’s a simple explanation of what scientists DO know. Global warming increases the intensity of our weather because it causes temperatures to rise, which leads to more water evaporation. And when those larger amounts of water come back down, they lead to bigger storms. 

Megan Hall: Will this really affect the weather in a noticeable way?  

Fatima Husain: It depends on where you live, but again, the general answer is yes. Kerry and hundreds of other atmospheric scientists agree that —

Kerry Emanuel: places that are pretty rainy already will tend to get rainier, wetter as the climate warms, whereas places that are already dry, like deserts, are expected to get even drier. 

Megan Hall: So, what about here in New England? How is global warming affecting our storms? 

Fatima Husain: Kerry says that we’ll probably see longer periods without any rain. But when it does rain, it’ll be heavier, which leads to more floods. And We’re already seeing this. According to NASA, cases of heavy rainfall in the Northeast have gone up around 55 percent over the past 60 years.  

Megan Hall: and what about hurricanes? Can we expect more of those? 

Fatima Husain: Kerry says think quality, not quantity. 

Kerry Emanuel: We expect to see stronger hurricanes as the planet warms. Not necessarily more hurricanes, but more category 3, 4, and 5. 

Fatima Husain: And according to initial research, the same applies to tornadoes. We’re likely to see about the same amount, but they’ll be more intense. 

Megan Hall: Marius also mentioned tsunamis. Should we expect to see more of those? 

Fatima Husain: Thankfully, no. Tsunamis are triggered by earthquakes, those aren’t influenced by climate change. 

Megan Hall: Good to know. But what about big storms we’ve seen in the past- like Hurricane Katrina? Was climate change to blame in that case?

Fatima Husain: Until recently, most scientists didn’t think they knew enough to connect a specific weather event to climate change… But, in the past couple of years, they have been able to pinpoint global warming as a culprit for some events, like heat waves and major forest fires.  

Megan Hall: So, what’s the answer to Marius’s question? Is there a connection between global warming and extreme weather?

Fatima Husain: Yes. Global warming is already making weather more extreme, and we’ll see more of these intense storms as the planet continues to warm. Kerry says the most obvious way to address this is to limit our greenhouse gas emissions. In a major way. 

Kerry Emanuel: I have to say, honestly, that the most effective thing you can do as an individual is to get involved in the politics of this, to make sure that politicians get elected who are serious about doing it.

Fatima Husain: And he has a special message for Marius:

Kerry Emanuel: I hope you maintain your interest in science and maybe someday we’ll see you at MIT.

Megan Hall: Great! Thanks, Fatima! 

That’s it for today. For more information, or to ask a question about the way you recycle, use energy, or make any other choice that affects the planet, go to the public’s radio dot org slash possibly. 

Possibly is a co-production of the Institute at Brown for Environment and Society and the Public’s Radio. 

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Fatima’s Sources: 

Kerry Emanuel: This year’s hurricanes are a taste of the future [physics of hurricanes 22:44-29:31]

Yes, you can blame climate change for extreme weather

Hurricane Sandy hybrid storm: Kerry Emanuel on climate change and storms.

How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous

Explainer: Desertification and the role of climate change

How Do Hurricanes Form?

Earth’s Freshwater Future: Extremes of Flood and Drought – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

How Climate Change May Be Impacting Storms Over Earth’s Tropical Oceans – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

Explainer: What climate models tell us about future rainfall

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