Today we’re taking a look at what causes in-flight turbulence and how rising temperatures might be making your flight bumpier.
Megan Hall: Welcome to Possibly, where we take on huge problems like the future of our planet. And break them down into small questions with unexpected answers. I’m Megan Hall.
When you fly in an airplane, sometimes the ride is nice and smooth. Other times, it feels like you’re on a roller coaster. What causes this turbulence? And is climate change making it worse?
Sedi-Anne Blachford and Hamid Torabzadeh from our Possibly team looked into this question.
Sedi-Anne Blachford: Hello Megan
Hamid Torabzadeh: Thanks for having us!
Megan Hall: So what made you want to look into this question about climate change and turbulence?
Sedi-Anne Blachford: Well, I’m originally from California but go to school on the East Coast so I end up flying across the country a few times a year.
Hamid Torabzadeh: And we’d seen some news stories about how climate change might be making in-flight turbulence worse, so we wanted to do some digging.
Megan Hall: And what did you find out?
Sedi-Anne Blachford: Well first, to understand what turbulence is and how we can detect it, we called up a pilot.
Chris Warren: Hello I’m Chirs Warren, I’m a major US airline pilot.
Hamid Torabzadeh: Chris has been flying commercial planes for 28 years, so he knows a thing or two about turbulence.
Chris Warren: If it’s just a little rattling in your seat, we designate that as light turbulence. But if you feel like your drink was spilled, then that gets bumped up. And then there’s an even higher level called severe turbulence, the airplane would probably rock and roll a bit.
Sedi-Anne Blachford: Chris says, this rocking and rolling in the plane can be caused by a lot of things- clouds, weather, and something that you can’t see- dramatic changes in the speed or direction of the wind.
Hamid Torabzadeh: According to researchers, this is the type of turbulence that’s most affected by climate change.
Megan Hall: How does that work?
Hamid Torabzadeh: To find out, we called up a researcher who knows all about the atmosphere.
Osamu Miyawaki: I’m Osamu Miyawaki. I’m a postdoctoral fellow at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Sedi-Anne Blachford: Osamu says there have always been areas in the sky with faster wind speeds.
Osamu Miyawaki: If you go up about where the airplanes fly, there’s this really strong stream of wind, it’s like a tube of air that runs much faster than its surroundings.
Hamid Torabzadeh: You’ve probably heard of these jet streams. And just like swimming in the ocean, when you’re moving with a strong current of air, you go faster.
Sedi-Anne Blachford: But on the edges of these currents you get pretty severe drop-offs in wind speed. Those extreme changes can affect how smooth your ride is.
Megan Hall: So, when you kind of fall out of a jet stream, into a slower patch of wind, you can get some turbulence?
Hamid Torabzadeh: Exactly.
Megan Hall: But that still doesn’t explain what this has to do with climate change.
Sedi-Anne Blachford: So that’s where this story gets interesting, because according to a recent study that Osamu published:
Osamu Miyawaki: The fast winds are getting really fast.
Hamid Torabzadeh: These currents of air happen when cold air combines with hot, humid air.
Sedi-Anne Blachford: And with global temperatures going up, the hot air from the tropics is getting hotter.
Hamid Torabzadeh: Since warmer temperatures leads to more evaporation, the hot air is also carrying more moisture.
Sedi-Anne Blachford: And when that hotter, more humid air, combines with the cold air from the poles, it makes the jet streams even faster.
Megan Hall: Which makes the jolt, or the turbulence when you fall out of a jet stream even more extreme?
Hamid Torabzadeh: That’s right!
Megan Hall: Is this something I need to worry about?
Hamid Torabzadeh: Not really. Even though the data shows an increase in turbulence, Chris the airline pilot says he hasn’t noticed a difference.
Chris Warren: I can’t say that I feel like it’s gotten worse. But I can say that I think we’ve gotten better as airlines and as pilots and as forecasters in determining where it’s at.
Sedi-Anne Blachford: Osamu agrees. He says this is more of an issue for airlines who will have to think about how this turbulence increase might mean more wear and tear on their planes. But as long as they do that-
Osamu Miyawaki: Passengers like us should have nothing to be worried about.
Hamid Torabzadeh: So the answer to the question is a bit of a yes and no situation. Scientists say that more extreme wind speeds are making turbulence worse.
Sedi-Anne Blachford: But as long as you keep your seat-belt fastened when the light comes on, you should be alright.
Megan Hall: That’s good to hear. Thanks Sedi-Anne and Hamid!
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Possibly is a co-production of the Institute at Brown for Environment and Society and the Public’s Radio
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